NFL games get more sports betting action than just about any other sport in the world. However, a lot of these wagers come from casual “weekend warriors” who end up losing more than they make. Why? Because they tend to follow favorites, which will cost you money even if your bets go 50-50, because of the vig. If you want to get ahead of the rest of the wagering public, take a look at our top five tips for boosting your profits this season. Looking towards the 2022 season? Let’s see these tips for your NFL bets.
NFL News: 5 Betting Tips for 2022
Keep an even keel
Each week, there are 16 games at most, with a host of sports talk personalities who have plenty of opinions to offer. After the Week 1 results come in, you will see some point spreads that overreact going into Week 2. An example of this happened last year, when Green Bay played New Orleans in Jacksonville and got thrashed. Aaron Rodgers shook off the ugly game and calmly led the Packers to another NFC North title. So remember: teams that roll to easy wins in Week 1 may not be as good as they look, and teams that get run off the field in Week 1 are probably better than you think. Each team has elite talent, and the parity in the NFL is much greater than it is in college football, which is why a team like the Houston Texans has a much better chance of knocking off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers than the Vanderbilt Commodores have of even covering against Alabama. Week to week, don’t get too full of yourself if all of your picks hit – but don’t lose confidence if you take a bath one week. Take the long view, and stick to what works.
Don’t bet just to bet
In a high-parity sport like the NFL, the point spreads develop a great deal of efficiency, which means that either side of that spread falls around 50-50. However, even with that truth, people end up losing a lot of money, particularly when they bet for the sake of betting. If you’re about to turn on a prime-time Monday night matchup, you are likely to be tempted to put down some sort of action on the game to add some fun to the game. You might be more likely to do this after winning a lot of money on Sunday and getting the chance to double up with the last game, even if the Monday game is something like Detroit-New England, where there are all sorts of questions that could end up taking away all of your winnings. Above all, if you’ve been drinking enough to get that happy buzz, don’t open your betting app.
Enter parlays with care
Parlays are a lot of fun – after all, the odds that you get with winning skyrocket. If you take on a four-game parlay that would pay 15/1. For the professional bettor, this can be an effective way to boost your edge. However, if you’re still fairly new to betting, you’re just going to give away money. Don’t let the massive odds lure you into poor decisions.
Don’t buy points that you don’t need
The only real time that buying a point is worth it is when it takes you onto or off a key number that will hit more than 5 percent of the time. These numbers are 3, 4, 6, 7, 10 or 14. The only numbers that consistently hit more than 5 percent of the time are 3 or 7 – and 5 percent is the breakeven rate for buying a half-point for 10 cents. So if you have the chance to take a favorite down from 3 or 7 or to boost an underdog to 3 or 7 or more, then you should do it. Buying on or off 3 is the wisest choice, as games have finished with a three-point margin at least 10 percent of every historical period, so it is actually worth paying as much as 20 cents to make these changes: pushing a 3-point favorite to 2.5, pushing a 3.5-point favorite to 3, taking a 2.5-point underdog to 3 and pushing a 3-point underdog to 3.5.
Think about moving to specialized markets
The point spread and point total bets in the NFL are some of the most popular in the world, which means that the market is extremely efficient – and tough to beat. You won’t find many imbalances at all. However, such wagers as player props can make sense for the casual bettor. Taking the under on such bets as yardage for players can pay off, and the bigger bettors leave them alone because of the wager limits and the restrictions that you will hit if you win repeatedly. These wagers are a solid way to build your betting account if you’re just getting into wagering, though.
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