Marlins vs Padres: MLB Betting Analysis & Predictions

Marlins vs Padres: MLB Betting Analysis & Predictions

The hot start for the Miami Marlins (12-12) has fizzled, as the team has a four-game losing streak after losing at home to Arizona, 8-7, on Wednesday afternoon. Next up is a four-game set in San Diego to start a West Coast swing against the Padres (16-8). San Diego has a two-game winning streak, including a 5-4 win in Cleveland in the opening game of a doubleheader on getaway day. Consider this series opener for part of your online MLB betting ahead of the weekend.

MLB Preview: Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres (Thursday, May 5)


When: Thursday, May 5, 2022, 9:40 pm ET

Where: Petco Park, San Diego

TV: No National Broadcast

Radio: WINZ 940 AM Miami / KWFN 97.3 FM San Diego

Live Stream: Sling TV

MLB Odds: Miami Marlins +100 / San Diego Padres -120

Projected Pitching Matchup: Jesus Luzardo (2-1, 3.10 ERA) (MIA) vs Nick Martinez (1-2, 4.12 ERA) (SD)

Why should you bet on the Marlins?

In his last two starts, Jesus Luzardo has pitched extremely well. He faced the Braves and the Mariners, throwing 11 combined innings and permitting one earned run on two hits in each of those games, picking up the win and dropping his ERA from 4.82 to 3.10. He has struck out 13 batters on those two games, permitting just six walks and one home run.

In the Wednesday loss to Arizona, Miami benefited from the ejection of Diamondbacks starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner after the first inning, coming after an argument with first base umpire Dan Bellino. Miami had a 7-6 game going into the ninth inning, but Arizona scored a pair of runs in the top of the ninth. Jesus Aguilar had three base hits in the loss, but the fact that Marlins starter Elieser Hernandez could not protect a 3-0 lead, giving up five runs in the fourth, including a home run, a triple and a single. The Marlins are having a difficult time getting clutch pitching lately – but Luzardo could turn that around.

Why should you put your money on the Padres?

Nick Martinez has pitched serviceably in three of his four starts this season; on Thursday, he pitched in Cincinnati and threw five innings of five-hit, two-run ball, striking out five while walking two. He has been prone to giving up the long ball, already permitting five home runs this season. He got the win against the Reds despite some issues with the bullpen, as the offense put up seven runs.

The Padres got a big boost with the return of Mike Clevinger in the first game of a doubleheader in Cleveland on Wednesday (the second game is underway as of this writing). Manny Machado hit a two-run home run in the third inning, and Austin Nola put the Padres ahead in the sixth inning with a double, giving San Diego six wins in their last seven games, all away from Petco Park. Clevinger was returning from Tommy John surgery after the 2020 NLDS. First baseman Luke Voit could be activated for Thursday’s game after success in his rehab assignment with Triple-A El Paso

Final Score and Prediction

The Marlins come in with the better starting pitcher, but the Padres come in with the better offense, and the better bullpen. Of the four games, this might be the Marlins’ best chance to win, if the Miami bats can get to Nick Martinez. Even so, I’m going with the hot hand, and I predict a final score of San Diego 5, Miami 3.

MLB Betting Odds

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Author: Ella Sims